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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:10 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
mrscott wrote:
I just took a look at Arizona's numbers compared to Utah numbers. Number of cases for Arizona are not quite double compared to Utah's, yet the number of deaths is almost 8 times the amount. Why is there such a huge disparity of percentages? That is the question that I would like to know. Not just theories of Utahn's are generally more healthy (we are no different than anywhere else), or air quality, because Salt Lake valley's air quality is horrible. To me, there is something else that is making the numbers vastly different. Maybe the way states report? Maybe it's a combination of all things,,, I do not know. But I am sure someone does.



:!: From the start of this pandemic Mr.Scott getting accurate numbers has been a problem. The actual death count could be much higher than has been reported for numerous reasons. We don't have an accurate number as far as how much of the population has actually been infected, it could be ten times the reported number. I have seen one guess that maybe 15% of the total population has been exposed to the virus. A great deal of the population of Utah is Mormon, they don't smoke, drink tea, coffee, also they don't drink at bars. They live a very family oriented lifestyle, that could be part of the answer. Whatever the reason for the low mortality rate in Utah, you shouldn't let your guard down, we are still in the very early stages of this pandemic, it is now in all 50 states, just like the civil unrest. Together it is going to make things very hot this Summer.



Or the death toll and the amount of cases could also be exaggerated, it could be either way. There have been states that have admitted that their testing policies and numbers are flawed. Some hospitals do both a nasal test along with a throat test. Yet they record 2 separate cases of virus when there was actually only 1. Some states are also recording deaths due to Covid to add to their numbers to get extra Federal money to the states. On each reported case of Covid19, the federal government gives a certain amount of money to the states in aid. I don't know that exact amount, but some states are overly exaggerating the death toll in order to get the extra funds. They might be recording almost any deaths as Covid caused, when in fact it was something entirely different. Case in point. Right now there has been zero reported fatalities from influenza. So, yes, exact numbers are almost impossible to determine.

As far as our "healthier" lifestyles here in Utah, maybe that does affect the percentages to a certain degree, but I cannot believe that it makes the percentage drop by as much as they are reporting. I honestly believe that Utah's numbers are fairly accurately being recorded. Other than the total number of cases should be much higher because there are people who have had been infected, yet they never got tested. And those numbers don't show up anywhere. But that would also make the percentage of deaths/infected drop accordingly.

Then you compare different states (other than Utah of course) to each other and the percentages vary greatly as well. Michigan shows a 9.6% death/infected rate, but California is 4.0%, Florida is 4.3%, Washington 5.3%, Oregon 3.7%, Ohio 6.2%, Missouri 5.7%, New Mexico 4.5%, Arizona 4.7% , Illinois 4.4%, Nevada 5.0% (these states I just chose randomly)..... then compare to Utah @ 1.1%. This indicates to me that the reporting and how the numbers are being counted is flawed, not just a little, but extremely.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:14 am 
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Alan B wrote:
The Lone Ranger wrote:
mrscott wrote:
I just took a look at Arizona's numbers compared to Utah numbers. Number of cases for Arizona are not quite double compared to Utah's, yet the number of deaths is almost 8 times the amount. Why is there such a huge disparity of percentages? That is the question that I would like to know. Not just theories of Utahn's are generally more healthy (we are no different than anywhere else), or air quality, because Salt Lake valley's air quality is horrible. To me, there is something else that is making the numbers vastly different. Maybe the way states report? Maybe it's a combination of all things,,, I do not know. But I am sure someone does.



:!: From the start of this pandemic Mr.Scott getting accurate numbers has been a problem. The actual death count could be much higher than has been reported for numerous reasons. We don't have an accurate number as far as how much of the population has actually been infected, it could be ten times the reported number. I have seen one guess that maybe 15% of the total population has been exposed to the virus. A great deal of the population of Utah is Mormon, they don't smoke, drink tea, coffee, also they don't drink at bars. They live a very family oriented lifestyle, that could be part of the answer. Whatever the reason for the low mortality rate in Utah, you shouldn't let your guard down, we are still in the very early stages of this pandemic, it is now in all 50 states, just like the civil unrest. Together it is going to make things very hot this Summer.

If mrscott wants to act all macho about going back to hosting karaoke, then so be it... but keep in mine, this virus does not discriminate on where it's going to kill... or when.... or who. While Utah's numbers maybe significantly lower compared to other states, you are not immune. Especially since his people have shown no interest in taking precautions such as keeping their distance and using microphone covers.

Personally, when the bars reopen in my area, if there are no guidelines in place by the venue, and I don't feel safe, I'm not going back. I am not going to put myself as well as my wife's life in jeopardy.


No Alan, I am not being "macho". But I do want the truth. And that is something the government has not done, nor will they ever do. So, I just go about my daily business as I deem necessary to make it from one day to the next, nothing more. So, let me ask you to keep your attitude in check when you use my name if you would please.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:07 am 
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mrscott wrote:
But I do want the truth. And that is something the government has not done, nor will they ever do.

And this is something I totally agree with you 100%.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:10 am 
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mrscott wrote:


Then you compare different states (other than Utah of course) to each other and the percentages vary greatly as well. Michigan shows a 9.6% death/infected rate, but California is 4.0%, Florida is 4.3%, Washington 5.3%, Oregon 3.7%, Ohio 6.2%, Missouri 5.7%, New Mexico 4.5%, Arizona 4.7% , Illinois 4.4%, Nevada 5.0% (these states I just chose randomly)..... then compare to Utah @ 1.1%. This indicates to me that the reporting and how the numbers are being counted is flawed, not just a little, but extremely.



:!: All of those numbers are higher than the .02% zeke was touting a few days ago. Since we are on the road now to be more in the Sweden type of scenario, let us look at their death rate per capita 100,000, works out to 5.5%. That would be 5500 deaths per 100,000. If they have 100% of their population become infected, if they continue with no lock down, they are looking at 550,000 deaths for a population of 10 million. There are currently 327 million or so Americans, do the math, we are talking about millions of deaths, if we decide to throw caution to the wind. The virus is on the move, and all of the social disorder that is currently running through all 50 states, is not helping the matter any.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:15 am 
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Alan B wrote:
mrscott wrote:
But I do want the truth. And that is something the government has not done, nor will they ever do.

And this is something I totally agree with you 100%.



:!: Did it ever occur to anyone that maybe even the government doesn't know, and the truth can't be had by anyone, even those in charge? They have to rely on the same flawed data, there is an old saying "crap in crap out". Trying to keep it clean if possible.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:06 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
Alan B wrote:
mrscott wrote:
But I do want the truth. And that is something the government has not done, nor will they ever do.

And this is something I totally agree with you 100%.



:!: Did it ever occur to anyone that maybe even the government doesn't know, and the truth can't be had by anyone, even those in charge? They have to rely on the same flawed data, there is an old saying "crap in crap out". Trying to keep it clean if possible.


There is some truth in what you are saying for sure. But I will take it a step further. They not only do no know what the truth is, but do not know what they are doing either. They only fight among themselves and turn everything into a political mess.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:54 pm 
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Quote:
All of those numbers are higher than the .02% zeke was touting a few days ago

The number I was quoting comes from a recent Stanford University study, which puts the number between 0.1% and 0.2%. That said, I do agree with statements made that nobody really knows the exact number. The number originally touted by WHO when the lockdown started was 3.4%, which is being revised downward in subsequent studies.

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keep in mine, this virus does not discriminate on where it's going to kill... or when.... or who.

The data doesn't really bear this out. It's not indiscriminately killing random people of random ages. The data from New York City Health as of May 13, 2020 is as follows:
  • 0-17 year olds - 0.06% of deaths
  • 18 - 44 years old - 3.9% of deaths
  • 45 - 64 years old - 22.4% of deaths
  • 65 - 74 years old - 24.9% of deaths
  • 75+ years old - 48.7% of deaths


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:55 pm 
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The data from the state I live paints a similar picture, with:
  • 12 deaths in the age range of 0-29,
  • 9 deaths in the age range of 30-39,
  • 37 deaths in the age range of 40-49,
  • 77 deaths in the age range of 50-59,
  • 182 deaths in the age range of 60-69, and
  • 1141 deaths being people who were 70+

Here's an article suggesting 42% of the deaths have been patients in nursing homes.

Aside from age, the biggest risk factor for coronavirus seems to be obesity.

Here's an article from the New York Times suggesting nearly all patients hospitalized with covid-19 had chronic health issues.

So yeah, not an indiscriminate killer, if you actually look into the data.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:53 pm 
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Bars in my state (Michigan) can reopen on June 12. However, there are restrictions and guidelines, set forth by the governor, that must be followed. Mainly the following:

• Bars & Restaurants can only operate at 50% capacity.
• Tables must be at least 6 feet apart.
• Employees are required to wear masks.

I am happy to see these guidelines in place. As I've said before, you just can't flip a switch... you have to turn a dial. This is why states like Arizona, where Paradigm Karaoke hosts, are experiencing an increase in infections and death. He has stated that several of his customers have contracted the virus with some who've been hospitalized and are in ICU. I gather this is because, as he has stated, upon opening, the bars have been packed. I take it that there was no reopening guidelines or operating at a reduced capacity.

Paradigm, I believe what you are experiencing is only going to get worse as people continue to pack the bars. You numbers will keep rising putting you more at risk then ever before.

I'm glad we have a governor that does not want to rush things and wants to take it slowly. She's using the data for our state as a guide as well as our state medical experts advice. You cannot rush this. And you cannot reopen for business as usual without taking precautionary measures.

I feel safer going back to the venues in my state since we're taking it slowly and taking precautions but if I lived in Arizona, there's no way I'd be working in a bar where the outbreak is increasing the way you've (Paradigm) reported it.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:37 am 
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zeke wrote:
The data from the state I live paints a similar picture, with:
  • 12 deaths in the age range of 0-29,
  • 9 deaths in the age range of 30-39,
  • 37 deaths in the age range of 40-49,
  • 77 deaths in the age range of 50-59,
  • 182 deaths in the age range of 60-69, and
  • 1141 deaths being people who were 70+

Here's an article suggesting 42% of the deaths have been patients in nursing homes.

Aside from age, the biggest risk factor for coronavirus seems to be obesity.

Here's an article from the New York Times suggesting nearly all patients hospitalized with covid-19 had chronic health issues.

So yeah, not an indiscriminate killer, if you actually look into the data.


:!: This might be the current numbers zeke, but the virus is not static item, it is growing and mutating into more deadly strains, that attack the younger victims. We are still in just the early stages of this pandemic, the next several months leading up to the Fall and Winter months will tell, if we were smart to open up again so quickly in some areas.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:45 am 
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why is the death toll higher here? can't say for sure, but i really believe income disparity has something to so with it.
Arizona Median Income = $56,581
Utah Median Income = $68,358

Arizonians on Medicaid = 22% of the population
Utahns on Medicaid = 8%

we are just poorer and have less medical access so that may be a big factor.

the bars have not followed any of the guidelines, only one venue made any attempt by putting hand sanitizer on every table, but that is it.
honestly, i am only back because i have no choice. go back or lose my entire business.
they will have it when they want it and if we don't go back, they will find someone who will.
another shutdown is coming, only 17 states across the US have managed to contain the spread of coronavirus but ALL SIX of those that are reopening amid the pandemic have not and are showing the largest increases.
New York, still on lockdown, has a 0.9 effective reproduction rate, which is one of the lowest across the country
All eight states that currently have no stay-at-home orders - Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming - are among the states with the highest rates of secondary infections.

it's coming, and i'm kinda ok with it because i will get to not be out in it anymore. reopening early is what put my business at risk, reopening early is what put my family at risk, and reopening early took away my choices on both.
but look on the bright side, the rich people got even more stock market money.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:31 am 
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Zeke, if you're fortunate and live a healthy lifestyle you may be one of those old people signing up to sing a karaoke song someday. Your post has eliminated most of the state of Florida, a retirement state for many. The old singers may not buy as many drinks as some of the young, but they make up for it in buying food and tips for the KJ.
I live in a county in Florida that had 413 cases of Covid, nearly all in a nursing home with a population fluid around 200,000. Several years ago this county had the highest percentage concentration of 65 + YO in the country. How do you account for so low a concentration of Covid in such an "old" county. By your theory this county should have spiked way past the average, given the high percentage of seniors. Here's why Fl. had one of the lowest rates given the 3rd highest population in the country. It was the way the Governor dealt with the virus, he attacked the nursing homes quarantining them, not bringing infected patients into them. He required 14 day quarantining from high Covid states like NY and NJ coming into Fl. Finally Fl. is a high UV state which kills virus outdoors on surfaces. He never really closed the state completely, except certain things like restaurants, bars, gyms, schools, sports, except golf courses which mostly remained open. Boating, fishing all remained open for everyone including old people. BTW I say social distancing to the nth degree from the old people living here, nearly all using masks.

If you decide to do karaoke in Florida make sure you let the old people know where you're playing so they may avoid your show, thanks.


Last edited by Capt Frank on Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:32 am 
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:!: It there any doubt about why the protester feel frustrated. The con is that we are all in this together, the truth is this country is all about maintaining the status quo. Now the military is going to be called in to put down the protests. It is going to be bullets rather than ballots. We are starting down the slippery slope into Dictatorship unless some how we can pull back on the stick. Our Democratic Republic is teetering on the edge of falling into the abyss.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:06 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
:!: It there any doubt about why the protester feel frustrated. The con is that we are all in this together, the truth is this country is all about maintaining the status quo. Now the military is going to be called in to put down the protests. It is going to be bullets rather than ballots. We are starting down the slippery slope into Dictatorship unless some how we can pull back on the stick. Our Democratic Republic is teetering on the edge of falling into the abyss.


That would be great if it were only protests, however, when anarchists and groups designed to create havoc infiltrate the protest and begin burning and pillaging the community, destroying property, looting, killing, and maiming people, your not into a protest anymore, you're into full blown anarchy, and government has no recourse but to step in. BTW the status quo is what keeps the country from falling into anarchy.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:16 am 
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Capt Frank wrote:

That would be great if it were only protests, however, when anarchists and groups designed to create havoc infiltrate the protest and begin burning and pillaging the community, destroying property, looting, killing, and maiming people, your not into a protest anymore, you're into full blown anarchy, and government has no recourse but to step in. BTW the status quo is what keeps the country from falling into anarchy.



:!: This is only the tip of the iceberg, in less than 60 days the stimulus money will be spent, then what? If you think people are upset now, that will be nothing to when they can't pay their rent, or buy food for their children. Then what are the soldiers going to do, shoot down civilians stealing food to survive? The status quo is also the reason for all of this, centuries of injustice, and now the bill is coming due.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:25 am 
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Paradigm Karaoke wrote:
why is the death toll higher here? can't say for sure, but i really believe income disparity has something to so with it.
Arizona Median Income = $56,581
Utah Median Income = $68,358

Arizonians on Medicaid = 22% of the population
Utahns on Medicaid = 8%

we are just poorer and have less medical access so that may be a big factor.

the bars have not followed any of the guidelines, only one venue made any attempt by putting hand sanitizer on every table, but that is it.
honestly, i am only back because i have no choice. go back or lose my entire business.
they will have it when they want it and if we don't go back, they will find someone who will.
another shutdown is coming, only 17 states across the US have managed to contain the spread of coronavirus but ALL SIX of those that are reopening amid the pandemic have not and are showing the largest increases.
New York, still on lockdown, has a 0.9 effective reproduction rate, which is one of the lowest across the country
All eight states that currently have no stay-at-home orders - Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming - are among the states with the highest rates of secondary infections.

it's coming, and i'm kinda ok with it because i will get to not be out in it anymore. reopening early is what put my business at risk, reopening early is what put my family at risk, and reopening early took away my choices on both.
but look on the bright side, the rich people got even more stock market money.


I don't know if the numbers you posted are current or accurate at this point in time, but income disparity has nothing to do with it, I am sure. Availability to proper medical care does have a great deal to do with a good standard of living. And that is something Utah excels at (for the most part). So, compare Utah to another state that is similar in health care quality and standard of living (Colorado), and you still get the huge gap in percentage of deaths/infected ratio. I just don't understand how that can be unless the reported numbers are not even close to being accurate.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:40 am 
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By the way, boy do I wish I was making the median income for Utah...I am not even close!! And don't get me started on my health care and insurance,,,,,grrrrrrr. Hence, the need to return to hosting. Good thing in our area we are pretty safe and remote.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:31 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
Capt Frank wrote:

That would be great if it were only protests, however, when anarchists and groups designed to create havoc infiltrate the protest and begin burning and pillaging the community, destroying property, looting, killing, and maiming people, your not into a protest anymore, you're into full blown anarchy, and government has no recourse but to step in. BTW the status quo is what keeps the country from falling into anarchy.



:!: This is only the tip of the iceberg, in less than 60 days the stimulus money will be spent, then what? If you think people are upset now, that will be nothing to when they can't pay their rent, or buy food for their children. Then what are the soldiers going to do, shoot down civilians stealing food to survive? The status quo is also the reason for all of this, centuries of injustice, and now the bill is coming due.


As ex law enforcement and being in countries where anarchy reigns, and the people carry AK47s for protection. I guarantee, you and your family will never want to live in a country like that. These people not only are starving, they're not sure they'll be alive tomorrow.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:44 am 
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This is an odd question for everyone... but....

Does anybody on here know "personally" anyone who had been confirmed died from the virus? Not someone who knows someone who is the second cousin to the dog groomer's neighbor..... but "ACTUALLY" knows personally.

Just curious


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:52 am 
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Capt Frank wrote:

As ex law enforcement and being in countries where anarchy reigns, and the people carry AK47s for protection. I guarantee, you and your family will never want to live in a country like that. These people not only are starving, they're not sure they'll be alive tomorrow.



:!: I as well am ex-military and was trained in riot control, during the anti war movement, and the civil unrest of the late 1960's. Also I have been overseas and have seen other countries mainly Western Europe, they have riots but the citizens there for the most part aren't armed. In this country which is awash with guns, the chances of a real armed uprising is greater, than in a country where only the military and police are armed. Once the people of this country get to the point of starving, and they don't have a roof over their families head, then I think you will see some real ANARCHY. The only way to prevent it is making sure those that have lost their jobs are taken care of.


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